Jersey in B & I Cup Preview

Jamie Crawford
Director of Rugby

Posts: 1,859

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 19, 2016 11:39:20 GMT

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Post by Jamie Crawford on Jan 19, 2016 11:39:20 GMT

So far the Knights lead Pool 5 of the British & Irish Cup and they are unbeaten. In fact the Knights are now unbeaten over the last twelve games in all competitions, the last time we were beaten was on Friday 9 October when Leeds Carnegie beat us 27-20 in the Championship.

Unbeaten is the key however Jersey have run us close twice with two draws. Both at St Peter’s, their Jersey home. The first game of the year was in the Championship in horrendous conditions, a 17 all draw but also on Saturday 14 November Jersey drew 22-22 with us in the Cup.

Jersey are second in Pool 5 of the Cup and the only team that could overtake us in one game.
Last Saturday we beat Connacht Eagles 0-40 and Jersey beat Newport Gwent Dragons 24-12. In November the Dragons beat Jersey by just three points 30-27.

Last Saturday’s wins leave the Knights with 21 points and Jersey four points behind with 17. Jersey would need a bonus point win to overtake us as they have lost that game to the Dragons.

Leinster ‘A’ remain the form team in the Cup, they beat Moseley 24-49 last Saturday. Although we are unbeaten in the Cup, Leinster ‘A’ are the only team to have won all five games. They have only missed out on the try bonus point once when they just beat Rotherham Titans at Clifton Lane 9-12 last November. Unfortunately Leinster ‘A’ are the top seeds in the Cup but the Knights are the only other unbeaten team. Leinster ‘A’ have 24 points with Carnegie (five bonus points) & the Knights (three bonus points) with 21 points.

tomthepom posted on the Forum, “Our maths at this end are that we (Jersey) need to beat you by 8 or more to win the pool (as the points difference is +94 to +79, so with a score of 0-8 it would then go up to +86/+87). I'm sure both sides will be going all out to win the pool, with Donny having a definite home QF if they win, and uncertainty about how many points will be needed to get one of the best runner-up slots (somewhere in 19-21 range I'd guess)…”

Using the BBC website I agree with Tom’s calculations (for what that’s worth!)

The Knights don’t need to worry about the maths if they win, which I’m sure they intend to do.

I will add stats when they become available.

COYK

DONNY, DONNY, DONNY…

Last Edit: Jan 19, 2016 11:40:26 GMT by Jamie Crawford

corporalcarrot
Ball Boy

Posts: 68

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 19, 2016 16:09:14 GMT

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Post by corporalcarrot on Jan 19, 2016 16:09:14 GMT

Really looking forward to the match on Saturday. Two well matched sides but if the coaches pick their strongest team I expect Jersey to have the stronger bench and hope to see them win by 10-12 points. It could easily go either way however and hope it isn't settled by injury or poor discipline and both teams keep 15 on the pitch for the full 80.

Jamie Crawford
Director of Rugby

Posts: 1,859

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 20, 2016 10:33:06 GMT

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Post by Jamie Crawford on Jan 20, 2016 10:33:06 GMT

Indeed it has JB. I hope your gauntlet is reinforced to resist the Knights’ attack CC.

The Beeb weather forecast is for 8 degrees, a mere puff of wind at 11 mph compared to 2nd Jan at St Peter’s and no rain. The weather can’t save Jersey this time; it’s time to put Jersey to the sword and rediscover our Castle Park fortress.

I predict; not a riot but a comfortable four-point win for the Knights. A five-pointer would be most welcome Knights. As CC said, “…hope it isn't settled by injury or poor discipline and both teams keep 15 on the pitch for the full 80.”

Away fans are always welcome at Castle Park, especially ‘vocal’ ones. I’ll be watching from in front of the box to the mid-right (towards the clubhouse in a black coat (24 IT Services not mine). I’ll look out for a guy with red hair (I assume)?

Jamie Crawford
Director of Rugby

Posts: 1,859

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 20, 2016 11:31:06 GMT

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Post by Jamie Crawford on Jan 20, 2016 11:31:06 GMT

As I’ve mentioned the Knights lead Pool 5 with 4 wins and 1 draw; Jersey are second (and 4 points behind) with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss. Both teams have accumulated 3 bonus points on their journeys and Jersey’s points difference is 15 lower than ours. Therefore they need a bonus point win, a win without a bonus point would mean that both teams were equal on league points therefore I believe that they would need to score 16 more points than us (sorry Tom but I make it 16 points.) Anyone ?

Jersey’s Full Back/Fly Half Aaron Penberthy is in the Top 10 B & I Cup scorers, his strike rate has been 87% and Penberthy’s away strike rate has been better at 90%, so be careful with your discipline Knights. Winger Tom Howe is only five places behind based on try-scoring. Jersey’s Tongan Back Row Uili Kolo’ofai and Tom Howe are equal-second in the top try-scorers chart.

Jersey themselves are the equal-second highest try-scorers in the Cup below Leinster and equal with Carnegie and Bristol. Over half of Jersey’s tries have been scored by forwards and nearly 60% of these were by the Back Row (note Kolo’ofai’s position). A further 25% were penalty tries, so some of these might be attributed to the Back Row?
Only Cardiff Blues’ Wingers have scored one more try than Jersey’s (again note Tom Howe’s position) and only Munster’s Half-Backs have scored as many as Jersey’s.
Jersey are also equal-second best at not letting the opposition cross the whitewash. 78% of the tries that Jersey have conceded have been by Backs, so they have a very strong Pack. I’m sure the Knights are already aware of this and Griff and his team have worked out a plan to breach their defence. Try-scoring has been fairly steady throughout the game.
Fortunately for the Knights try scoring has roughly been a 60:40 spilt home:away. Slightly more tries have been conceded in the first twenty.

COYK

DONNY, DONNY, DONNY…

Last Edit: Jan 20, 2016 11:36:18 GMT by Jamie Crawford

tomthepom
Mascot

Posts: 22

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 20, 2016 12:48:28 GMT

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Post by tomthepom on Jan 20, 2016 12:48:28 GMT

Don't forget that the score in any match impacts on the PD of both competing sides.

I don't expect this to be the score, but for sake of argument Jersey win 0-8 on Saturday. Donny's PD would fall by 8 pts from +94 to +86, while at the same time Jersey's would improve by 8 pts from +79 to +87.

Jamie Crawford
Director of Rugby

Posts: 1,859

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 20, 2016 16:53:02 GMT

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Post by Jamie Crawford on Jan 20, 2016 16:53:02 GMT

Oh yeah, of course - thanks Tom. I thought this when I agreed with your figures but this morning I thought that I was wrong and only the score on day mattered. It's the cumulative total for each team, so effectively double.

Therefore IF Jersey beat the knights without a bonus point, you need to win by eight points to negate the knights' losing bonus if it was seven or fewer and so that Jersey's points difference is greater with equal win/draw/loss results.

I've got to stop putting vodka on me cornflakes!

martinc
Director of Rugby

Posts: 1,738

Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 21, 2016 7:53:13 GMT

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Post by martinc on Jan 21, 2016 7:53:13 GMT

B&I Cup Round Up (EnglandRugby.com) Last Week Quote "Doncaster Knights, going so well in the Championship, are still fighting on both fronts and could wrap up Pool 5 should they beat Connacht Eagles on their travels." This we did we are in Quarter Finals, but now to get the decent seeded position we need at least 2 points - come on Donny boys give us 5.

COYK

martinc Director of Rugby Posts: 1,738	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 8:49:12 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by martinc on Jan 22, 2016 8:49:12 GMT Wish there was more build up on the club website......just not enough happening to make it worthy of visiting regularly. Looking forward to tomorrows game, hope it is well attended.

isleonian Manager Posts: 989	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 11:21:43 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by isleonian on Jan 22, 2016 11:21:43 GMT Are you sure it's working, martinc?

martinc Director of Rugby Posts: 1,738	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 12:03:51 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by martinc on Jan 22, 2016 12:03:51 GMT good question well presented.........

Mundiz Administrator Posts: 540	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 12:24:26 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Mundiz on Jan 22, 2016 12:24:26 GMT Teams up Martin
	A word to the wise isn't necessary - it's the stupid ones that need the advice

davewhite Water Boy Posts: 116	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 12:37:43 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by davewhite on Jan 22, 2016 12:37:43 GMT Martinc Yes it's all a bit quiet for a pivotal cup game. Let's hope the crowd is good....... A long time since most of us last watched them ! Perhaps we will get a pre match player interview

martinc Director of Rugby Posts: 1,738	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 12:43:01 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by martinc on Jan 22, 2016 12:43:01 GMT Unlikely Dave What do we think of the team selection? Is it our strongest possible?

Jamie Crawford Director of Rugby Posts: 1,859	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 12:46:58 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by Jamie Crawford on Jan 22, 2016 12:46:58 GMT It's great to have a strong squad. We won 40-0 last week against Connacht Eagles yet we (Griff) can make many changes and still have an excellent team

thomasmachin Player Posts: 336	Jersey in B & I Cup Preview Jan 22, 2016 14:02:52 GMT Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Back to Top Post by thomasmachin on Jan 22, 2016 14:02:52 GMT Martin Jersey are very strong in the lineout my preference would be John Further is Will injured

thomasmachin: It would appear that if we are to replace the departing players we had better be quick or all the available players will be signed by Ealing ,Coventry and Cornish Pirates! Apr 20, 2018 8:14:16 GMT

donnyknightsfan: that was absolutely dire today almost from start to finish apart from a spell in the 2nd half when we looked OK. players don't look motivated enough to me. they need a kick up the backside. the next two games v Bedford and Irish look a tough ask now. Oct 6, 2018 21:04:32 GMT

rodders: A bit random this one but are any Knights fans travelling to the Jersey game on Friday 1st March flying from East Midlands on the 10.55 flight out. 2 of us are looking for a lift to East Midlands airport unexpectedly. Happy to share costs of travel Feb 17, 2019 19:52:21 GMT